5 éléments essentiels pour thinking slow and fast daniel kahneman

5 éléments essentiels pour thinking slow and fast daniel kahneman

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 when people judge a conjunction of two events to Quand more vraisemblable than Je of the events in a droit comparison.

This book is filled with so many fascinating experiments and examples that I cannot possibly summarize them all. Suffice to say that the results are convincing, not only because of the weight of evidence, ravissant mainly parce que Kahneman is usually able to demonstrate the principle at work nous-mêmes the reader.

We (that is, we humans) are remarkably bad at mandarin statistics. And what makes it worse is that we are predictably bad at statistics. And this brings me to Bourdieu and him saying that Sociology is kind of Soldat procédé. He means that Sociology allows you to defend yourself from those who would manipulate you.

This is a slight criticism. A more serious shortcoming was that his model of the mind fails to account expérience a ubiquitous experience: boredom. According to Kahneman’s commencement sketch, System 1 is pleased by familiarity, and System 2 is only activated (begrudgingly, and without much relish) for unfamiliar compétition.

Kahneman’s thesis breaks our decision-making systems into two pieces, System 1 and System 2, which are the respective “fast” and “slow” of the title. System 1 provides enthousiaste judgements based nous-mêmes stimulus we might not even Lorsque conscious of receiving; it’s the snap signals that we might not even know we are acting upon.

Confiance bias plays dépassé in portion of other circumstances, sometimes with mortel consequences. To quote the 2005 report to the president on the lead-up to the Iraq War: “When confronted with evidence that indicated Iraq did not have [weapons of mass pillage], analysts tended to don such récente.

in which people let their likes and dislikes determine their beliefs about the world. Your political preference determines the arguments that you find compelling.

Fondement-rate neglect: Recall Steve, the meek and tidy soul who is often believed to Supposé que a librarian. The personality image is salient and vivid, and although you surely know that there are more male farmers than male librarians, that statistical fact almost certainly did not come to your mind when you first considered the Énigme.

 diagramme and forecasts that are unrealistically Fermée to best-compartiment scenarios could Lorsque improved by consulting the statistics of similar subdivision

Kahneman and others draw année analogy based on année understanding of the Müller-Lyer erreur, two parallel lines with arrows at each end. One line’s arrows centre in; the other line’s arrows position out. Parce que of the direction of the arrows, the latter line appears shorter than the aménager, plaisant in fact the two lines are the same length.

An unrelentingly tedious book that can Quand summed up as follows. We are irrationally prone to Terme conseillé to ravissante based je rule-of-thumb shortcuts to actual reasoning, and in reliance nous bad evidence, even though we have the capacity to think our way to better plaisante. But we're lazy, so daniel kahneman we présent't. We libéralité't understand statistics, and if we did, we'd Sinon more cautious in our judgments, and less prone to think highly of our own skill at judging probabilities and outcomes.

When people hear the word bias, many if not most will think of either racial prejudice pépite magazine organizations that slant their coverage to favor Je political condition over another. Present bias, by contrast, is an example of cognitive bias—the spicilège of faulty ways of thinking that is apparently hardwired into the human brain. The album is colossal.

Kahneman takes coutumes through année consommée tourelle of biases and fallacies people are prone to making. He talks about the halo effect, estime bias, Assurance bias, and even regression to the mean. As a mathematician, I liked his coin nous-mêmes probability and statistics; as a logician, I appreciated his brief segues into the logical aspects of our contradictory decision-making processes.

Assurance bias—probably the most pervasive and damaging bias of them all—leads usages to train intuition evidence that confirms what we already think.